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Content library

All the content we produce on decision making can be found on

The book

The Myth of Experience
Emre Soyer & Robin Hogarth, Public Affairs, 2020

"A transformative look at experience and the many ways it deceives and misleads us, providing remedies to improve our judgments and decisions, in the workplace and beyond.”

You can find the book here.

The Myth of Experience
The Myth of Experience

The advice

Click to go to the articles.


Talks & Videos

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The blog

Click to read.

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The puzzles

Click to solve.

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The platform

Decision Refinery

An online platform that allows for data collection, sharing ideas, and building simulations on decision making.


Scholarly research

  • Hogarth R. M., & Soyer E. (2021). Regression to the mean: Experimental evidence and a proposed heuristic. Decision. (in press).

  • Soyer, E., Pauwels, K., & Seggie, S. H. (2019). Big and lean is beautiful: A conceptual framework for data-based learning in marketing management. Review of Marketing Research, 16, 63-83.

  • ​Seggie, S., Soyer, E., & Pauwels, K. (2017). Combining big data and lean startup methods for business model evolution. AMS Reivew, 7(3-4), 154-169.

  • ​Hogarth R. M., & Soyer E. (2016). Kind and wicked experience in marketing management. Journal of Marketing Behavior, 2, 81-99.

  • Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2015). Learning from experience in nonlinear environments: Evidence from a competition scenario. Cognitive Psychology, 81, 48-73.

  • Hogarth, R. M., Lejarraga, T. & Soyer, E. (2015) The two settings of kind and wicked learning environments. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24, 379-385.

  • Hogarth R. M., & Soyer E. (2015). Communicating forecasts: The simplicity of simulated experience. Journal of Business Research, 68, 1800-1809

  • Hogarth R. M., & Soyer E. (2015). Providing information for decision making: Contrasting description and simulation. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 4, 221-228.

  • Soyer, E. (2015) Uygulama ve Politika Gelistirme (Nudges and policy applications). In Neyse et al (Eds.) Ikisatta Davranıssal Yaklasımlar (Behavioral Approaches in Economics). Imge. (In Turkish)

  • Hogarth R. M., & Soyer, E. (2015). Improving judgments and decisions by experiencing simulated  outcomes. Neuroeconomics, Judgment, and Decision Making. Psychology Press.

  • Hogarth R. M., Mukherjee, K., & Soyer, E. (2013). Assessing the chances of success: Naïve statistics vs. kind experience. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 39, 14-32.

  • Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2012). The illusion of predictability: How regression results mislead experts. International Journal of Forecasting, 28, 695-711.

  • Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2011).The size and distribution of donations: Effects of number of recipients. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 616-628.

  • Hogarth, R. M., & Soyer, E. (2011). Sequentially simulated outcomes: Kind experience vs. non-transparent description. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 140, 3, 434-463.

  • Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2015). The golden rule of forecasting: Objections, refinements, and enhancements” Journal of Business Research, 68, 1702-1704.

  • Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2012). Response to commentaries on “The illusion of predictability: How regression results mislead experts.” International Journal of Forecasting 28, 719-721.

Enterprises & Social initiatives

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