Upcoming book on decisions from experience (September 1st, 2020)
In The Myth of Experience, behavioral scientists Emre Soyer and Robin Hogarth take a transformative look at experience and the many ways it deceives and misleads us. From distorting the past to limiting creativity to misrepresenting risks to reducing happiness, experience can cause misperceptions and then reinforce them, without our awareness. With real-life examples from bloodletting to personal computers to pandemics, and distilling cutting edge research, Soyer and Hogarth illustrate the flaws of experience as a guide to decision making and provide the remedies to improve our judgments and choices—in the workplace and beyond.
Teaser for the book
Kind vs. Wicked
Our intuition is not infallible. If we are not careful about our learning environment, our experience may install biases in our intuition, without our awareness. And more experience would reinforce these misperceptions, rather than eliminating them.
Selected articles on decisions from experience co-authored by Dr. Emre Soyer
Talks, workshops, and projects to organizations in a variety of sectors
Modules and sessions in the executive, graduate, and alumni programs of renowned business schools
Benefits for Decision Makers
Inspiration, satisfaction and comfort in decisions thanks to…
…refining intuition by knowing when to trust and doubt it
…avoiding mistakes by spotting and evading hidden traps
…learning correct and actionable insights from experience
…managing uncertainty by generating and testing new ideas
…gaining control over own decisions by regulating objectives
…improving negotiation skills and outcomes through creativity
…assessing and mitigating risks by enhancing statistical literacy
…predicting and influencing other people’s decisions and behavior
Dr. Emre Soyer has founded SOYER Decision Advisory to improve decision processes and outcomes of people and organizations. The primary values of the Advisory are honesty, fairness, accountability, sustainable improvement, passion, fun, quality, and simplicity.
Benefits for Organizations
Sustaining growth by reducing mistakes and increasing insights
Building resilience to unexpected crises by adapting to uncertainty
Solving problems and reducing costs by harnessing wisdom of crowds
Improving customer and employee satisfaction through behavior design
Setting up incentive schemes for opportunity generation and recognition
Achieving and maintaining a cooperative and creative work environment
Social enterprises and creative projects
Scholarly research on experience, uncertainty, and decision making.
Soyer, E., Pauwels, K., & Seggie, S. H. (2019). Big and lean is beautiful: A conceptual framework for data-based learning in marketing management. Review of Marketing Research, 16, 63-83.
Seggie, S., Soyer, E., & Pauwels, K. (2017). Combining big data and lean startup methods for business model evolution. AMS Reivew, 7(3-4), 154-169.
Hogarth R. M., & Soyer E. (2016). Kind and wicked experience in marketing management. Journal of Marketing Behavior, 2, 81-99.
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2015). Learning from experience in nonlinear environments: Evidence from a competition scenario. Cognitive Psychology, 81, 48-73.
Hogarth, R. M., Lejarraga, T. & Soyer, E. (2015) The two settings of kind and wicked learning environments. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24, 379-385.
Hogarth R. M., & Soyer E. (2015). Communicating forecasts: The simplicity of simulated experience. Journal of Business Research, 68, 1800-1809
Hogarth R. M., & Soyer E. (2015). Providing information for decision making: Contrasting description and simulation. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 4, 221-228.
Soyer, E. (2015) Uygulama ve Politika Gelistirme (Nudges and policy applications). In Neyse et al (Eds.) Ikisatta Davranıssal Yaklasımlar (Behavioral Approaches in Economics). Imge. (In Turkish)
Hogarth R. M., & Soyer, E. (2015). Improving judgments and decisions by experiencing simulated outcomes. Neuroeconomics, Judgment, and Decision Making. Psychology Press.
Hogarth R. M., Mukherjee, K., & Soyer, E. (2013). Assessing the chances of success: Naïve statistics vs. kind experience. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 39, 14-32.
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2012). The illusion of predictability: How regression results mislead experts. International Journal of Forecasting, 28, 695-711.
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2011).The size and distribution of donations: Effects of number of recipients. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 616-628.
Hogarth, R. M., & Soyer, E. (2011). Sequentially simulated outcomes: Kind experience vs. non-transparent description. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 140, 3, 434-463.
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2015). The golden rule of forecasting: Objections, refinements, and enhancements” Journal of Business Research, 68, 1702-1704.
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2012). Response to commentaries on “The illusion of predictability: How regression results mislead experts.” International Journal of Forecasting 28, 719-721.