Decide wiser.
Strategic & Creative Decision Making
Decisions make or break us.
SOYER Decision Advisory offers scientific strategies and methods to reduce errors and increase insights in decision making, ensuring sustainable growth and resilience against crises.
Managers continuously have to make judgments about risks and uncertainties, and make decisions to obtain the outcomes they desire, often under resource constraints (time, people, money). They rely on their experience, intuition, and data. Yet these are prone to systematic mistakes, narrow perspectives and manipulations, which unexpectedly lead to losses and shortfalls.
Also, organizations achieve their objectives when their components work together to make decisions effectively and efficiently. Hence, the benefits of having highly skilled decision makers in the company grows exponentially, while the costs remain limited and linear.
A recent McKinsey Global Survey on managers revealed that "only 20 percent of respondents say their organizations excel at decision making. [...] On average, respondents spend 37 percent of their time making decisions, and more than half of this time was thought to be spent ineffectively. For managers at an average Fortune 500 company, this could translate into more than 530,000 days of lost working time and roughly $250 million of wasted labor costs per year." And this is without taking into account the losses due to faulty decisions.
Some common problems in managerial decision making:
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Learning the wrong insights from data, successes, and failures.
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Not knowing when to trust and doubt intuition and emotions
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Failing to appropriately prioritize and delegate decisions
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Making decisions that are not relevant for objectives
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Relying heavily on readily available options
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Overestimating control over future opportunities
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Underestimating rare yet impactful threats
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Not harnessing enough the advantages brought by groups
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Failing to predict and manage other decision makers
Services
Engaging sessions about decision problems and viable solutions.
Interactive sessions that improve individual and team decisions.
Sustainable solutions to behavior and decision related issues
DOWNLOAD the booklets for detailed information
Ideas
In The Myth of Experience, behavioral scientists Emre Soyer and Robin Hogarth take a transformative look at experience and the many ways it deceives and misleads us, providing remedies to improve our judgments and decisions—in the workplace and beyond. More information at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Goodreads.
References
Industry talks, workshops, and/or projects, including...
Business school executive modules and/or alumni sessions, including...
Dr. Emre Soyer founded SOYER Decision Advisory to help people and organizations make better decisions.
The primary values of the Advisory are honesty, fairness, accountability, sustainable improvement, passion, fun, quality, and simplicity.
Founder
Social enterprises and creative projects
Scholarly research on experience, uncertainty & decisions
Hogarth R. M., & Soyer E. (2021). Regression to the mean: Experimental evidence and a proposed heuristic. Decision. (in press).
Soyer, E., Pauwels, K., & Seggie, S. H. (2019). Big and lean is beautiful: A conceptual framework for data-based learning in marketing management. Review of Marketing Research, 16, 63-83.
Seggie, S., Soyer, E., & Pauwels, K. (2017). Combining big data and lean startup methods for business model evolution. AMS Reivew, 7(3-4), 154-169.
Hogarth R. M., & Soyer E. (2016). Kind and wicked experience in marketing management. Journal of Marketing Behavior, 2, 81-99.
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2015). Learning from experience in nonlinear environments: Evidence from a competition scenario. Cognitive Psychology, 81, 48-73.
Hogarth, R. M., Lejarraga, T. & Soyer, E. (2015) The two settings of kind and wicked learning environments. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24, 379-385.
Hogarth R. M., & Soyer E. (2015). Communicating forecasts: The simplicity of simulated experience. Journal of Business Research, 68, 1800-1809
Hogarth R. M., & Soyer E. (2015). Providing information for decision making: Contrasting description and simulation. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 4, 221-228.
Soyer, E. (2015) Uygulama ve Politika Gelistirme (Nudges and policy applications). In Neyse et al (Eds.) Ikisatta Davranıssal Yaklasımlar (Behavioral Approaches in Economics). Imge. (In Turkish)
Hogarth R. M., & Soyer, E. (2015). Improving judgments and decisions by experiencing simulated outcomes. Neuroeconomics, Judgment, and Decision Making. Psychology Press.
Hogarth R. M., Mukherjee, K., & Soyer, E. (2013). Assessing the chances of success: Naïve statistics vs. kind experience. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 39, 14-32.
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2012). The illusion of predictability: How regression results mislead experts. International Journal of Forecasting, 28, 695-711.
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2011).The size and distribution of donations: Effects of number of recipients. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 616-628.
Hogarth, R. M., & Soyer, E. (2011). Sequentially simulated outcomes: Kind experience vs. non-transparent description. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 140, 3, 434-463.
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2015). The golden rule of forecasting: Objections, refinements, and enhancements” Journal of Business Research, 68, 1702-1704.
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2012). Response to commentaries on “The illusion of predictability: How regression results mislead experts.” International Journal of Forecasting 28, 719-721.
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